WASHINGTON, DC—Working women, affluent immigrants and both younger and older adults will drive demographic trends through 2025, the Urban Land Institute says in a new report. Titled Demographic Strategies for Real Estate, the report sees positive long-term implications for the multifamily sector, among other findings.

“Government policies, economic cycles, new technologies, and shifts in social acceptability have driven massive shifts in real estate demand over the decades,” says John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which prepared the report for ULI's Terwilliger Center for Housing. Real estate executives who “identify the trends early and adapt always win,” he adds.

Household formation is expected to increase by 86% over the next decade, with well over half of the 12.5 million net new households choosing to rent. That includes those who have never owned their homes as well as those making the switch from owning to renting as they age. Accordingly, homeownership will decline, with the national rate anticipated to drop to 60.8% by '25, the lowest point since the 1950s.

However, the majority of the households formed by younger adults won't take up residence in urban areas, the report states. Instead, they'll gravitate to so-called surban areas, which the report says bring “the best of urban living to a more affordable suburban environment.” The report's authors coined the term surban to describe areas such as Reston Town Center in Reston, VA; Legacy Town Center in Plano, TX; and Old Town in Pasadena, CA.

“Many suburban cities created decades ago that are now largely built out continue to reinvigorate themselves with vibrant surban downtowns composed of new retail and residential developments,” the report states. “In surban areas, housing affordability, home size, privacy and kid-friendliness feel more urban than suburban, while school quality, public transportation, and proximity to employment feel more suburban.” The report predicts that 79% of new households over the next decade will settle in the suburbs.

The advent of surban areas doesn't bode well for conventional shopping centers. “More retail stores will be transformed into places that sell experiences, rather than goods, and more development will combine housing and retail to satisfy consumer demand for places that offer convenient, car-free shopping,” according to ULI.

It does, however, have positive implications for suburban office. Helping to drive this trend will be the so-called Sharer generation, those born between 1980 and 1989 and who led the transition to a sharing economy. ULI says that as '80s-born Sharers move into more senior management roles and start families, many will also move from urban cores to the suburbs to live in areas with good schools, but which are also near employment hubs and entertainment and recreational amenities. They will be willing to share space and work remotely.

“Women earned more than half of the college degrees obtained by Sharers,” according to ULI. As a result, “female executives will play a stronger role in office space selection.”

At the other end of the age spectrum, 66 million Americans will be over age 65 by the year 2025, or 38% more than in 2015. The ULI report predicts “lucrative opportunities for customer segmentation, given the widely varied needs and lifestyles of younger retirees versus older ones. The surge in retirees will also create more opportunities for workers, driving incomes up for many occupations.”

Steady gains in the US economy have resulted in net positives for the multifamily sector—will this wave continue for the foreseeable future? What's driving development and capital flows? Join us at RealShare Apartments on October 19 & 20 for impactful information from the leaders in the National multifamily space. Learn more.

“Women earned more than half of the college degrees obtained by Sharers,” according to ULI. As a result, “female executives will play a stronger role in office space selection.”

Instant Insights /

ULI Forecasts Rise of 'Surban' Living

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