HOUSTON—In delving into Donald Trump's direction on energy, uncertainty remains an underlying theme until he takes office, some commercial real estate professionals say. One clue is his choice of climate-change critic to head the EPA, which would seem to have broad implications on environmental regulations.

However, Trump's pledge to cancel the Paris Climate Accord may be a tougher road because it is international law and would take him approximately four years to do so. Groups concerned about environmental issues along with those in commercial real estate are in a holding pattern to discover how it plays out. Through his pledge to make American energy dominance a strategic economic and foreign policy goal, what will happen to investment in and expansion of alternative sources of power, the green building movement, and pipelines? And, will his plans benefit the commercial real estate industry on a broad scale?

What we do know is Trump has stated that he plans to make America energy independent, create millions of new jobs, and protect clean air and water. He says his administration will conserve natural habitats, reserves and resources through an energy revolution that will bring new wealth to the country. This will be done by encouraging the use of natural gas and other American energy resources that will both reduce emissions and the price of energy, along with increasing economic output, Trump indicates.

Trump has said the nation will become and remain totally independent of any need to import energy from the OPEC cartel or any nations counter to US interests. His plan will open onshore and offshore leasing on federal lands, eliminate the moratorium on coal leasing and open shale energy deposits. He has stated that there is $50 trillion in untapped shale, oil and natural gas reserves, plus hundreds of years in clean coal reserves.

One bit of progress the day after the election came when the Canadian press reported, “TransCanada Corp. says it's evaluating ways to engage the newly elected Donald Trump administration on the potential benefits of the Keystone XL pipeline.”

Other efforts are underway to determine how to best work in tandem to find common ground. The coming two months will reveal more of what can be expected with the new administration and how it will affect the overall real estate industry.

How this will “drill” down to Houston is somewhat of an uncertainty as well, but legal experts have weighed in on how markets driven by oil and energy may find a further economic boost through an increase in employment and other methods.

“We anticipate an initial period of uncertainty while energy policy is more closely formulated and direction is provided to the agencies. Federal agencies will likely continue current Obama administration policies until directed otherwise,” says Jason Bennett, Houston-based partner of Baker Botts. “We anticipate that president-elect Trump will provide support for oil and gas drilling, and the coal industry as sources of high-wage middle class jobs.”

Bennett goes on to explain more specifics with regard to the types of products, focus and regulations.

“A likely reduction of the constraints on US exports of hydrocarbons, including more permissive liquefied natural gas export policies. Over the medium term, [there will be] a reduction in regulation in the energy sphere and a promotion of investment in energy infrastructure and activities. President-elect Trump has also indicated less focus on climate change as an essential part of energy policy.”

Another Baker Botts partner also weighed in on energy regulation as it relates to Houston.

“The current administration has been vocal in its criticism and aggressive in its regulation of the oil and gas and coal industries while promoting the development of certain forms of renewable or clean energy,” says Joshua Davidson, Houston-based partner of Baker Botts. “A Trump administration would likely slow or reverse the adoption of measures that restrict the domestic development and use of fossil fuels in the interest of protecting jobs and reducing the cost of energy.”

Broadly, with the selection of Trump as the incoming president, commercial landlords, tenants and investors are focused on how new leadership in the nation's capital will influence demand for space. However, according to Transwestern reports, the health of the commercial real estate industry hinges less on who sits in the White House and more on the general economic climate, which is relatively stable.

“The tapering business investment we've seen in 2016 is typical of presidential election years, as employers delay expenditures amid the uncertainty before Super Tuesday,” said Tom McNearney, chief investment officer of Transwestern. “Just as consistently, we anticipate spending will pick up again once the setting of the political stage returns some predictability to the market.”

McNearney explained that commercial real estate professionals and clients will be better prepared to face challenges and opportunities by focusing on economic trends, which offer several positive indicators. Recent job gains, rising household income and 2.9% gross domestic product growth in the third quarter underscore potential for increased consumer spending and continued economic growth.

Furthermore, while history suggests that the economy has more often prospered under a Democratic president and under periods of Republican control on Capitol Hill, Transwestern research shows those trends to be more a matter of timing than political influence. In a recent report, Elizabeth Norton, managing director of research for the Mid-Atlantic region of Transwestern, found that Republicans have held the White House more often in times of war and recession when the economy struggled, while Democrats have held the Oval Office more often in periods of economic recovery and expansion. However, neither scenario necessarily reflects cause-and-effect relationships between policy decisions and the economic conditions at the time, she concluded.

Bennett goes on to explain more specifics with regard to the types of products, focus and regulations.

Another Baker Botts partner also weighed in on energy regulation as it relates to Houston.

Instant Insights /

What is Known So Far About Trump's Energy Plans

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