CHICAGO—US shoppers have been spending a little bit more each holiday season since the end of the recession, and will most likely follow that pattern over the coming weeks, according to a new survey and forecast from Chicago-based JLL. Researchers at the firm say that total holiday sales figures generally grow or shrink in line with the US economy as a whole, and as the US GDP has shown slow steady growth, so too have holiday sales grown.

“Last year's holiday sales grew by 3.2% and we expect this year's growth to be between 3.5% and 4.0%,” the report says. “But while we have a good sense of what to expect in terms of overall sales, many questions around shopper and retailer behavior remain.”

JLL surveyed nearly 2,800 shoppers of 31 shopping centers in September. It also surveyed about 300 retail tenants in shopping centers in seventeen states in September and October. More than 71% of retailer respondents were inline retail locations and 16% were anchor or junior anchor tenants.

The surveys revealed a split in shopping habits between millennials and Gen Xers in one camp and boomers and senior citizens in the other. More than 60% of younger shoppers surveyed ranked “low prices” as one of the top three most important influencers of where they shop. Many also prefer discount department stores, such as Walmart, and online shopping. More than 50% of the older groups, however, ranked “quality” as one of their top three influencing factors. Not surprisingly, they prefer traditional department stores like JCPenney and Macy's.

But even though e-commerce has in many ways transformed the US shopping experience, “for all generations, the most widely cited shopping stops are bricks-and-mortar destinations,” JLL found.

Also, not surprisingly, JLL found that millennials will spend less than other generational groups. In fact, 30.8% say they will spend $250 or less for the holidays, whereas only 10.7% of baby boomers have budgeted such a small amount. Still, “as more millennials form families and mature in their careers, we expect their budgets to grow in pace.”

And retailers can still expect big spending from some customers. More than 19% percent of Gen Xers and 23.8% of boomers will spend more than $1,000 this season.

To bolster traffic, an increasing number of retailers have decided to stage in-store events, such as a visiting Santa or live music, during the holiday season, the survey also showed.

The next few days will be the most important of the year. Of the retailers surveyed, 56.5% expect to generate up to 20% of total holiday sales over the Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend.

But even though e-commerce has in many ways transformed the US shopping experience, “for all generations, the most widely cited shopping stops are bricks-and-mortar destinations,” JLL found.

And retailers can still expect big spending from some customers. More than 19% percent of Gen Xers and 23.8% of boomers will spend more than $1,000 this season.

To bolster traffic, an increasing number of retailers have decided to stage in-store events, such as a visiting Santa or live music, during the holiday season, the survey also showed.

The next few days will be the most important of the year. Of the retailers surveyed, 56.5% expect to generate up to 20% of total holiday sales over the Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend.

Instant Insights /

US Holiday Sales Likely to Expand

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