LOS ANGELES—Next year, the final round of CMBS debt from the last cycle will mature. In total, it is about $86 billion in CMBS debt that will need to be refinanced, and according to Shlomi Ronen, principal and founder of Dekel Capital, that is great news for the capital markets because it will create “forced transaction volume,” and will create a lot of opportunities. To find out more, we sat down with Ronen from an exclusive interview to talk about the state of the CMBS market, what to expect next year and if the push for early refinance for CMBS borrowers has helped to ease the burden, in this exclusive interview.

GlobeSt.com: What is going to happen to the $86 million in CMBS debt that needs to be refinanced next year?

Shlomi Ronen: It is going to create $86 billion of forced transaction volume next year. I expect it to be a pretty active year for the real estate industry. Even though we have this wholesale maturity happening next year and there is a big concentration in office and retail, the maturing loans are going to present some opportunity. However, that is going to take some time. CMBS lenders typically don't sell a loan if it is in default, either through a lender or through foreclosure. None of that happens quickly, so even though we will see $86 billion maturing next year, some of that will get paid off through a sponsor's new partnership or mezzanine loans. There will be some distress. We have already started to see an uptick in default rates on CMBS loans. We will continue to see that next year with term defaults. I think that there will be quite a bit of transactional volume around this next year.

GlobeSt.com: In the last couple of years, lenders have urged borrowers to refinance CMBS debt early. Has a large amount of the CMBS debt scheduled to come online next year already been refinanced?

Ronen: The assets that increased in value or the assets where owners had the ability to refinance, those owners have already taken advantage of that opportunity and looked in low rates for a long period of time going forward. I think the assets that we're going to see are in secondary locations are assets where values may not have risen enough, or may not have hit peak, or had some vacancy issues that are not able to support the debt levels put in place in 2007 as needed an infusion of capital or restructure either a lender.

GlobeSt.com: CMBS had a volatile year. How do you expect 2017 will compare to 2016?

Ronen: CMBS has been gearing up to implement the new Dodd Frank risk retention policies. There have been a number of securitizations that have been implemented with a risk retention model, and so I expect that to continue next year. I don't see wholesale changes in the CMBS world next year. We will continue to see some volatility in that sector next year. They will still do a similar amount of financing that they have done this year. It would be pure speculation for me to say a number, but I don't expect anything different from the CMBS side next year.

GlobeSt.com: What is going to happen to the $86 million in CMBS debt that needs to be refinanced next year?

GlobeSt.com: CMBS had a volatile year. How do you expect 2017 will compare to 2016?

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Maturing CMBS Debt Expected to Create Opportunity in 2017

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