IRVINE, CA—Only apartment valuations have seen positive growth over the past month, Ten-X said Friday. January marked the first time since February of last year that valuations remained flat industrywide on a month-over-month basis, with pricing in three of the five major property types eroding from the previous month.

While values have increased 8.1% from the year prior, recent months have seen “lackluster” results after a strong start to 2016, according to Ten-X. “While commercial real estate remains healthy overall, a sense of uncertainty has crept into the market over the past two months,” says Ten-X's chief economist, Peter Muoio. “The multifamily sector continues to see pricing growth month after month, but other property segments are being hampered by investors wary of a market that appears to be tightening.”

Apartments saw monthly pricing increases of 0.8% and annual growth of 16.2% in January. That represents its strongest annual gains since mid-2014. Multifamily's long-term prospects are also considered strong, thanks to a healthy labor market and higher mortgage rates, although Ten-X Research indicates that supply additions may increase vacancies and slow overall growth in many major markets in the near term.

The lodging sector posted flat growth for January. However, coming on four consecutive months of declines, January's performance represented “a moral victory,” according to Ten-X.

Pricing in the hospitality sector is off 5.4% from a year ago, due to what Ten-X calls “an abundance of challenges.” Although operating conditions remain healthy, the sector continues to be dogged by trepidation over its future, given the strong dollar and competition from accommodation sharing services such as Airbnb, according to Ten-X. The Southeast remain a major bright spot for hotels, with pricing gains of 4.3% in January, following a 3.9% monthly rise in December.

Although retail led with pricing growth in December, January found it back on the bottom rung with a pricing decline of 0.4%, Ten-X says. The reversal represents a correction following the holiday shopping season, although pricing across the sector is up 7.6% from the year-ago period. January's decline mainly reflected weak performance in the Northeast , where pricing declined nearly 5%, while in other regions, namely the West, Southwest and Southeast, prices actually rose for the month.

Declines in the Northeast, as well as in the Southwest, also lay behind the 0.3% decrease nationally for the office sector. Although pricing is still up 18.5% year over year, representing the highest annual increase of any sector , a closer look reveals major divergences along regional lines. The overall decline was driven drops of more than 3% in both the Northeast and Southwest, while all other regions showed increases.

The Ten-X Industrial CRE Nowcast showed a slight decline of 0.2% for industrial properties in January. As with office, the industrial sector's fortunes vary widely across the country. The Midwest and West are seeing the fastest price gains on a Y-O-Y basis, with growth exceeding 7%, while the oil-exposed Southwest is seeing more tepid gains. Ten-X sees a number of technological developments continuing to bode well for the sector's future, including the rise of cloud computing and e-retail, both of which have increased demand for industrial spaces.

“January proved to be a challenging month for most commercial real estate sectors, whether due to natural correction following the holiday shopping season, or more long-term headwinds such as those facing the hospitality industry,” Muoio says. “However, with a resilient national economy and continued uncertainty around the world, we can expect the real estate market to retain its strength for the foreseeable future.”

The lodging sector posted flat growth for January. However, coming on four consecutive months of declines, January's performance represented “a moral victory,” according to Ten-X.

Instant Insights /

Pricing Gains Flatten Out in January

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