IRVINE, CA—Whether they're still working through the bad loans from the Great Recession, dealing with the aftermath of statute-of-limitations legislation or seeing the results of relaxing standards, it's not time to sound the alarm in states that are seeing home-loan foreclosure upticks, ATTOM Data Solutions' SVP Daren Blomquist tells GlobeSt.com. According to data from the firm that was released today, overall national foreclosure activity in February dropped to a new 11-year low, the lowest since November 2005, but has increased in Washington, DC, on a year-over-year basis for 12 consecutive months ending in February. Also, counter to the national trend, foreclosure starts increased on a year-over-year basis in 15 states and the District of Columbia.

The data shows that national foreclosure activity decreased on a year-over-year basis for the 17^th consecutive month, but increased on a year-over-year basis in 10 states and the District of Columbia, where foreclosure activity increased 235% from a year ago. States with a year-over-year increase included New Jersey (up 16%); Delaware (up 14%); Louisiana (up 12%); Alabama (up 10%); and Hawaii (up 8%).

Three of the nation's 20 largest metro areas posted year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity: Houston (up 97% from an abnormally low February 2016), San Francisco (up 25%); and New York (up 9%).

Also, foreclosure starts in February increased 7% from the previous month but were still down 13% from a year ago—the 20^th consecutive month with a year-over-year decrease in foreclosure starts. States with an increase included Alabama (up 40%), Texas (up 26%); New Jersey (up 24%); Florida (up 12%); Illinois (up 11%); and Arizona (up 9%). Foreclosure starts in Texas have increased annually in three of the last four months, in New Jersey in two of the last three months, in Illinois in six of the last seven months, and in Arizona in six of the last 12 months.

Bank repossessions in February decreased 7% from the previous month and were down 18% from a year ago; however, 15 states and the District of Columbia posted a year-over-year increase in REOs, including Massachusetts (up 117%); Delaware (up 90%); Illinois (up 40%); New Jersey (up 19%) and Colorado (up 14 percent).

We chatted with Blomquist about the findings, the causes for foreclosure increases in certain states and where he sees foreclosures heading moving forward.

GlobeSt.com: What do you believe to be the main cause of foreclosures decreasing nationally?

Blomquist: I think that for the most part, the housing market has worked through the bad loans still lingering from the last housing crisis and is now turning to new loans originated within the last seven years, which have had low foreclosure rates. We're back to normal pre-recession foreclosure activity, and we're seeing the numbers go back to a new normal that is lower than what we were seeing prior to the Great Recession. The newer-vintage loans that have been originated are performing very strongly.

GlobeSt.com: Why are foreclosures up in Washington, DC, and 15 other states while the national trend is that foreclosures are decreasing?

Blomquist: There are two sets of things going on in that list of states where foreclosures are increasing. One is that there are some states that have been slower to work through the legacy of bad loans; DC is on that list. One way of looking at this is that a percentage of active loans in those areas originated between 2004 and 2008, the “problem period,” where a lot of loose lending was going on and toxic loans were originated. Nationwide, we're now down to 52% of foreclosures tied to that time period, but DC has 71% of the loans from that time, New Jersey has 61% and Florida has 56%. There are a few other states in that category, but we're seeing increases that have a lot to do with still working though the legacy distressed.

Also, in Florida, we have been waiting for some increases due to the Florida State Supreme Court late last year laying down a ruling in favor of lenders regarding the statute of limitations on foreclosures, which basically opened up the path for lenders to close on some questionable foreclosure cases that some were arguing exceeded the statute of limitations. So, we're seeing an uptick in foreclosures in Florida because of that.

In Arizona, only 37% of loans in foreclosure are tied to that problem time period, and Texas has 33%, so old distressed is not what's happening there; it's new distressed. Texas and Arizona had increased foreclosures off a very low level last year, so it's not time to sound the alarm there yet, but what's happening is we are starting to see some relaxing of credit going on, which is causing a bit of an uptick in foreclosure rates in states like that. The numbers are still lower than they were prior to the recession in both cases. The longer we see the real estate market in this boom cycle, the more low-confidence lenders will be willing to relax lending standards a bit. There's a direct correlation between relaxing lending and an uptick of foreclosures, but the level is still acceptable.

GlobeSt.com: What do you expect to happen in those regions going forward?

Blomquist: In the first set of markets—DC, New Jersey and Florida—there will be a short-term uptick in foreclosure activity this year, but eventually it will trend back lower as they finally work through most of that backlog. In the other states, we will see more of a gentle increase in foreclosure rates. But at this point, we don't see any signs that foreclosure rates are going to spike back into dangerous territory. We're dealing with old risk and new risk, but none of that is threatening to cause a major tsunami of foreclosures that we can see any time soon.

GlobeSt.com: Do you anticipate the national foreclosure figures to continue to decrease?

Blomquist: Yes, based on what we've seen in those bellwether markets like Arizona, Texas and California, we've seen foreclosure numbers finding a new normal. These are not just pre-recession normals, but returning to new lows, and will see that nationwide. It's hard to predict where that's going to be; we're still finding the floor.

We chatted with Blomquist about the findings, the causes for foreclosure increases in certain states and where he sees foreclosures heading moving forward.

GlobeSt.com: What do you believe to be the main cause of foreclosures decreasing nationally?

GlobeSt.com: Why are foreclosures up in Washington, DC, and 15 other states while the national trend is that foreclosures are decreasing?

GlobeSt.com: What do you expect to happen in those regions going forward?

GlobeSt.com: Do you anticipate the national foreclosure figures to continue to decrease?

Instant Insights /

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