RICHARDSON, TX—For the nation's least risky apartment market in terms of a rent recession, look outside the Smile States. So says RealPage's MPF Research, which recently scored both the metro areas least likely and those most likely to experience a period of two or more consecutive annual rent decreases, based on a composite of variables ranging from rent gains to household income growth.

When it comes to avoiding a rent recession, the most solid multifamily market in terms of its recent metrics is Minneapolis, says MPF. The risk of rent recession in Minnesota's largest city has been on a downward trend since at least the fourth quarter of 2014, although it spiked in Q4 2015.

In Q4 of last year, Minneapolis rent growth landed in the top decile historically, “seeing its strongest expansion since 2011,” according to a blog posting by market analyst Kyle Grace. “Absorption and occupancy growth landed in the 70th percentile or better and net inventory growth remains relatively subdued compared to what the market has seen in the past.”

In other metrics, MPF says Minneapolis' job growth has proven strong since the Great Recession, and while income growth “has taken a breather recently,” it still lands in the top half performance for that metric. “Personal bankruptcies are still decreasing in Minneapolis, albeit at a slower pace as the number approaches its cyclical bottom,” Grace writes. “The glaring weakness in Minneapolis is its weak population growth, a number that could prove important should net inventory growth begin to pick up.”

The other markets in the top five: Seattle, Orlando, San Diego and Los Angeles. What all have in common, according to Grace, are rent and absorption performances in the top 30th percentile for their market histories.

Another common element is the level of personal bankruptcy filings in these metro areas, with all seeing contracting numbers year over year. “Seattle and Orlando are seeing pronouncedly strong decreases in bankruptcies, showing there's still more room for the consumer's financial health to improve in these areas,” Grace writes. “Employment growth is also performing strongly across the regions, with these low-risk markets currently experiencing growth rates near or better than the top 30th percentile of their historical performances.”

The nation's riskiest markets for a rent recession either have the word San in their city names, are located in Texas or both. Leading the way for risk is Houston. “Rent has contracted on an annual basis for two consecutive quarters in Houston, meaning that the area already qualifies for our definition of a rent recession,” according to Grace.

He notes that the Oil City's annual rent decrease of more than 1% Q4 marks its weakest rent performance since Q2 2010. And while absorption remains elevated, occupancy continues to weaken on an annual basis, sliding in four of the past five quarters. Compounding the weak rent and occupancy data re elevated levels of deliveries in the Houston metro area.

Others in the top—or bottom, depending on how you look at it—five include San Francisco, San Antonio, San Jose and Austin. Rounding out the top 10 of risky markets are South Florida and Demver, both of which are currently rated as experiencing elevated risk, while Phoenix, Dallas/Fort Worth and Detroit remain stable, but are “closer to crossing into elevated risk scores.”

Instant Insights /

Multifamily's Lowest-Risk Markets, and Its Highest

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