CHICAGO—Chicago-area industrial developers have gone on a speculative building spree since 2013, and a steady stream of tenants have been at hand to occupy many of the new structures. Since the current development cycle began in 2013, builders have either completed or started 152 of these projects, a total of 42.4 million square feet, according to a new update from Colliers International. And users have leased more than 49% of this new space.

“That number has continued to rise every quarter,” Craig Hurvitz, vice president, market research at Colliers International in Chicago, tells GlobeSt.com. “Two years ago, it was closer to 30%. That means that demand is keeping up with the new supply, so far.”

The new year will bring some significant adjustments. Amazon, for one thing, will most likely slow down the pace of its leasing. “I can't see them leasing another 4.5 million square feet in the calendar year,” Hurvitz adds, the way it did in 2016.

“Amazon circled the entire Chicago region with major distribution buildings, starting in Southern Wisconsin and down into the southwest suburbs,” he says. “It was a strategic play and it was almost entirely done in one year. Amazon may occupy one more major distribution center in the southwest, but after that it will concentrate on smaller, last mile distribution buildings close to the city.”

The top spec developer since 2013 is Panattoni Development Co., with 3.84 million square feet, followed by Bridge Development Partners at 3.09 million square feet.

“The demand is most intense for both small and big-box buildings,” says Hurvitz. There have been 21 speculative projects since 2013 with more than 500,000 square feet, and tenants have taken 58.6% of their 14.6 million square feet of space. Tenants have also occupied 53.5% of the 8.3 million square feet contained in the 56 projects with between 100,000 and 200,000 square feet. By contrast, roughly one-third of the 12 million square feet in spec projects with between 300,000 and 500,000 square feet has been occupied.

Of the 8.4 million square feet of speculative development under construction, none has been pre-leased. But Hurvitz does not see signs of a slowdown. Of the 13 million square feet of spec space completed in 2016, about 55% of that has already been occupied. And CTDI, Inc. leased 67% of a 751,769-square-foot facility in suburban Elwood's CenterPoint Intermodal Center, the largest speculative delivery during the first quarter.

But the fact that tenants took 49% of the speculative space constructed since 2013 is key. “That's a very healthy number; it's the highest we've seen this cycle,” according to Hurwitz. The market will signal when demand is falling behind the pace of new spec construction “when that number starts to go in the other direction.”

The top spec developer since 2013 is Panattoni Development Co., with 3.84 million square feet, followed by Bridge Development Partners at 3.09 million square feet.

Instant Insights /

Spec Development Speeds Up, Demand Keeps Pace

Related Stories

Recommended For You