SANTA ANA, CA—While single-family home prices in general are up by double-digit percentages on a year-over-year basis after adjustments for changes in consumer buying power, the surge is most pronounced in undersupplied markets, says First American Financial Corp. A case in point is Jacksonville, FL, which leads the nation with a 20.6% Y-O-Y increase in real house prices and which has a low supply of for-sale housing.

Commenting on the firm's First American Real House Price Index for February, Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, observes, “Real, purchasing-power adjusted house prices increased 11% in February compared to a year ago. The lack of homes listed for sale is causing unadjusted house price growth to remain strong.”

Additionally, Fleming notes that increasing interest rates are reducing consumer purchasing power. “The result is a substantial year-over-year increase in the real price of homes.”

Most of the markets that First American follows for its monthly RHPI experienced double-digit real house price increases in February, compared with the year-ago period. “The main story in most markets this spring is the lack of supply,” says Fleming. “Combined with unfaltering demand, the lack of supply continues to pressure unadjusted prices higher in one of the strongest spring sellers' markets seen in recent memory. Even so, it's important to note that wages continue to grow and the level of affordability in most markets remains high by historical standards.”

For the second consecutive month, real house prices increased on a Y-O-Y basis in all the metropolitan areas tracked by First American. After Jacksonville, the Core Based Statistical Areas with the greatest Y-O-Y increase in the RHPI are Milwaukee, up 17.3%; Charlotte, NC, 16.5%; Cincinnati, 16.3%; and Denver, 15.4%. Conversely, CBSAs with the smallest Y-O-Y increases in the RHPI included Virginia Beach, VA, up 5.3%; Hartford, CT, 5.5%; Pittsburgh, 6.3%; San Francisco, 6.6%; and Boston, 8.2%.

The five states with the greatest Y-O-Y increases in the RHPI are: New York, up 15.1%; Colorado and Wisconsin, both 14.9%; Alabama, 14.3%; and Vermont, 14.1%. Only Mississippi saw a y-O-Y decline in the RHPI, at 2.7%.

Additionally, Fleming notes that increasing interest rates are reducing consumer purchasing power. “The result is a substantial year-over-year increase in the real price of homes.”

Instant Insights /

Real House Prices Surge 11% Y-O-Y

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