SANTA BARBARA, CA—Apartment rents nationwide grew in April, but at a slower pace than the long-term average, according to the latest monthly report from Yardi Matrix. Rents rose by an average of $3 to $1,314 from March; the 2% year-over-year increase seen during the month fell far short of the 5.5% rate of a year ago and represented the lowest rate of annual growth in six years.

None of which should come as a surprise. “As we have said for months, the deceleration is expected, given the rapid increase in supply and the inevitable return to growth that is more in line with income gains,” the report states.

In most metro areas and in most segments, rent gains have “far exceeded the rate of income growth in recent years, when the number of renters increased rapidly while supply nosedived in the wake of the last recession,” according to the Yardi Matrix report. “Now rents are peaking and have become difficult to afford for the average resident in many metros, while supply is at cyclical peaks.” Yardi Matrix expects 363,000 units to come on line this year, although the influx of new supply will taper off in 2018 and 2019.

The firm cites the disparity in Y-O-Y rent growth between segments as evidence of the impact of new supply. On a nationwide basis, rents of working-class Renter By Necessity properties have increased by a solid 3.3% year-over-year; in contrast, those in the upscale Lifestyle segment have risen by only 0.7%.

There's also a supply/demand gap at work. “Roughly 80% of the new supply is in the Lifestyle segment, which is aimed at high-income Millennials and downsizing Baby Boomers, while demand in many metros is driven by middle-class renters,” the report states. “The biggest impact is being felt in metros that have heavy supply growth, and the effect is exacerbated when rents are above trend.”

Numbers for individual metro areas help tell the story. The rent-growth gap for Houston is 5.3%, with RBN growing by a scant 0.5% Y-O-Y while Lifestyle rents have declined 4.7% from the year-ago period.

Other metros with big differences between RBN and Lifestyle rent growth include: Los Angeles, with a gap of 4.8% (5.8% RBN, 1.0% Lifestyle); Dallas, 4.4% (5.6% RBN, 1.2% Lifestyle); Charlotte, 4.4% (6.3% RBN, 1.9% Lifestyle); Sacramento, 4.2% (10.1% RBN, 5.9% Lifestyle); and Miami, 3.9% (4.7% RBN, 0.6% Lifestyle). Sacramento remains the nation's leader in rent growth, with gains of 9.9% on a trailing-12-month basis.

Instant Insights /

Apt. Rent Growth Slips Below Average

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