LAS VEGAS–Here, as in years past, Marcus & Millichap used RECon 2017 as the platform to unveil its 2017 US Retail Investment Forecast. A truly lively and informative presentation, the press event and panel discussion (moderated by first VP and national retail director Bill Rose) nevertheless departed from years past in terms of the issues, both real and overblown, that the retail sector faces.

(The panelists also gathered previously for Real Estate Forum's annual retail issue. To view some of their comments, please click here.)

First there's the negative news of bankruptcies and closings. But, as president and CEO Hessam Nadji pointed out in his opening remarks, “The market has gotten a hugely negative wrap in the media.”`

Then, of course, there's e-commerce. To the uninformed, it might appear that e-tailing is overshadowing traditional brick-and-mortar channels.

Finally, there's the extended wait-and-see period imposed on much investment activity by a still-new presidential administration.

In his remarks, Nadji put the lie to the first issue, pointing out that, while there has been a 12% to 14% decline in department store sales and e-commerce essentially is enjoying the reverse of that trend, overall retail sales are up 28% from their 2008 peak.

It's a trend borne out by the Forecast, in which writers Rose and John Chang (first VP of research) state: “Economic momentum continues to signal a year of strength for the retail sector as the steady pace of job formation underpins rising consumption.” Nadji put the job growth that buoys retail at two to 2.5 million a year.

And yes, while the CEO noted that e-commerce is the fastest-growing segment of retail, pure play e-commerce still hovers at less than 10% of the total, and in fact, as he pointed out: “Eight out of the top 10 e-tailers are traditional brands.” These include Wal-Mart, Nordstrom and Target.

Finally, the above-mentioned wait-and-see does indeed reflect negatively on the sector. As Rose and Chang write in the Forecast, “Investor caution amid a rising interest rate environment and many as-yet unanswered questions regarding tax reform and fiscal policy may affect transactional velocity.” Indeed, as Nadji pointed out, there's been a 15% decline this year in investment activity.

However, as both the report and the RECon event point out, equity is flush in the market, and if you know what you're doing, deals can still get done. As panelist Tom McGuinness of InvenTrust stated, “You have to know not just your asset, but the community around your asset.”

Not only that, but as fellow panelist John McNellis of McNellis Partners stated, “You have to know what to sell and what to buy.”

That, of course, is a truth in all real estate deals, and in all sorts of markets. It is the basis of all successful negotiation, no matter the property type. Which of course, leads to another basic truth specific to the sector. As Nadji urged the crowd: “Don't think of it as retail. Think of it as real estate.”

(The panelists also gathered previously for Real Estate Forum's annual retail issue. To view some of their comments, please click here.)

Then, of course, there's e-commerce. To the uninformed, it might appear that e-tailing is overshadowing traditional brick-and-mortar channels.

Finally, there's the extended wait-and-see period imposed on much investment activity by a still-new presidential administration.

Not only that, but as fellow panelist John McNellis of McNellis Partners stated, “You have to know what to sell and what to buy.”

Instant Insights /

Don't Think of It as Retail. Think of It as Real Estate

Related Stories

Recommended For You