CHICAGO—Most observers of commercial real estate in the US forecast a steady if not spectacular rate of growth for some time to come. But anyone asked for their forecast usually includes a caveat. There is always, they say, the possibility of a “black swan” event, something from outside the world of real estate that nevertheless derails or damages the markets.

These possibilities were a particular focus of last week's 2017 Chicago Forum on Global Cities. Organized by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, the three-day event brought together civic, educational, business, and cultural leaders to learn the latest on meeting challenges such as climate change, immigration, pandemics, inequality and the rise of populism and nationalism.

The terror attacks in London were a sobering reminder of the threats we all face, said Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson of the Financial Times, host of a morning panel on building the resilience of cities to withstand shocks.

Martin Kimani, director of the National Counter Terrorism Center of Kenya in Nairobi, praised the quick response of London's police force, and called militant jihadism “a great threat to the cohesion and progress of cities.” He also took the opportunity “to challenge cities, because cities are by definition the headquarters of liberal values, open values, freedom of speech, freedom of association, freedom of religion. But we have yet to see this amazing fount of ideas and knowledge take its place on the frontlines against this truly terrible ideology.”

David Paulison, the former director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, worries that cities have not done enough to prepare even for the disasters most likely to strike. A resident of South Florida, he said “we know we're going to have hurricanes; that's a given. If you live in LA or San Francisco, you're going to be preparing for earthquakes.” Leaders then need to assess building codes and the existing structures and ask, “are they able to withstand the type of disaster you know you could have? Oftentimes they're not.”

Proper simulations of the likely catastrophes are the next step. But Paulison typically sees flaws in these as well. Many cities closely adhere to a script when running a simulation. Such an exercise is certainly better than nothing, but having a script means “you'll never know what your weaknesses are.”

Furthermore, often a city's leadership is unwilling to make difficult but necessary decisions. In Miami, for example, that sometimes involves clearing the beaches and homes near the water during the hurricane season. “That's a tough call to make,” he said, because it can cost a lot, and many of the residents are elderly. “But you've got to make that call, and sometimes the hurricane goes the other way.” The experience of New Orleans was probably the most tragic example. “We ended up with 18,000 people in the Superdome who should not have been there.”

“The best leaders make their decisions based on facts, not on the politics of a situation,” said Bernard Hogan-Howe, former commissioner of London's Metropolitan Police Service. “As soon as I hear them ask, how will this appear, I begin to worry.”

And the leader most essential to any urban crisis is almost always the mayor, the panelists agreed, mostly because they know how to operate the government. “Mayors are essential because they are close to the action,” said Thomas Tighe, president and chief executive officer of Direct Action. “They have to fix potholes, they know the leadership in neighborhoods. That's critically important.”

And Paulison said the most important quality these leaders can have is the ability to listen to the day-to-day experts, meaning the fire chiefs, police chiefs, and others who handle emergencies. “If they don't listen, and just try to do what they think, they're going to have problems.”

Instant Insights /

Cities Need to Better Prepare for Shocks

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