IRVINE, CA—Home-loan-estimate documents with the addresses of the desired properties can indicate show which markets are trending and likely to be strong with lots of sales activity going forward, ATTOM Data Solutions' SVP Daren Blomquist tells GlobeSt.com. The firm recently released its first-ever Pre-Mover Housing Index, which shows that in Q1 2017 the markets with the highest pre-mover indices were Colorado Springs, CO; Charleston, SC; and Raleigh, NC.

Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the ATTOM Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag in a quarter to total homes in a given geography, indexed off the national average. An index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 30 days in a given market. Historical pre-mover data going back to Q1 2014 shows that 62.2% of homes with a pre-mover flag sell within 30 days of the estimated loan settlement date that is provided in the pre-mover data.

We spoke with Blomquist about the pre-mover flags that indicate people are looking to buy homes and the factors that encourage buyers to buy a home in a particular market.

GlobeSt.com: What are the “pre-mover flags” that indicate people are looking to buy homes?

Blomquist: The source is really the loan estimate document. When someone applies for a loan, the lender has to provide a loan estimate for them within three days. It's one of the key things that allows us to link it into our public-record property data. That loan estimate has the address of the home the borrower is trying to buy. We are able to see that address and look at how predictive that is of an actual sale occurring within the next 30 days of an estimate settlement date. Going back three years, 62% of the time, that property ends up selling within 30 days of the estimated settlement date. We are using that to create this index and saying which markets have the highest share of these pre-mover flags and which will be the most active in the second quarter and beyond.

One other key piece that we're getting is the purpose of the purchase: whether it's a primary home to live in, an investment property or a second home. This sheds some light on the markets that are most attractive to investors versus second-home buyers in first quarter of this year. It looks at where market is moving and which will be hot markets with a lot of sales activity going forward into the second quarter.

GlobeSt.com: What factors encourage buyers to buy a home in a particular market?

Blomquist: The markets that are most attractive and generating the most interest have homes that are relatively affordable. The data really proves that out. And it's not places with the hottest real estate markets like San Francisco or Seattle, but places like Colorado Springs, Charleston and Raleigh-Durham.

GlobeSt.com: What else do the markets with high pre-mover indicators have in common?

Blomquist: Access to good jobs is key. Colorado Springs is a good example at the top of the list. Denver is a very hot economy, but it's starting to get pretty unaffordable. Denver is high, but it's lower on the index than Colorado Springs is because it's less affordable—Colorado Springs is more affordable than some of the Denver counties. San Francisco is low on the index; there's not a lot of turnover of homes there. If you own a home there, you're sitting pretty; if you don't own a home there, it's hard to get into that market. But along with San Francisco, places like Rochester, NY, and Detroit have a very low pre-mover index because those places don't have a lot of jobs.

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