NEW YORK CITY—“Venturing guesses about the future is always a risky business—more so when innovative concepts stem from inventors, owners and investors who advocate on their behalf and promote them, sometimes to the point of hype.” That's according to a new report commissioned by Capital One and prepared by MIT's Center for Real Estate, which nonetheless does place some bets on what lies in store for the industry.

Titled “Real Trends: The Future of Real Estate in the United States,” the report charts the ways in which changes in technology, demographics and policy will converge and fundamentally alter the way industry professionals conduct business. For example, the report predicts that housing affordability issues in that nation's most expensive cities will be partially tackled by adapting buildings and land to more intensive residential uses.

“We need to supplement our traditional tools with innovative techniques to increase the stock of affordable housing,” says Laura Bailey, SVP of Capital One Community Finance. “Adaptive reuse is just one of the creative ways to meet this critical need.”

At the same time, “urban infill, especially in the multifamily sector, will require concerted bipartisan efforts to mute NIMBY pressures,” according to the report. “Some of our ailing industrial cities within otherwise thriving mega-regions will be repurposed to provide workforce housing.”

Looking at demographics, aside from the inevitable demand produced by the aging of the US population, MIT researchers also found that the industry can count on strong population growth, with cities in so-called “red states” continuing to gain residents. However, they also uncovered fundamental demographic shifts in future growth patterns.

For instance, with births by native-born mothers projected to slow over the next few decades, immigration will start to drive housing growth, making the biggest impact in destination cities. The MIT team also predicted that residential developers will begin to develop communities with integrated childcare services and other services as single-parent households comprise an increasingly large market.

“Many of the trends our MIT partners uncovered defy conventional wisdom, while others highlight evolving market conditions that were hiding in plain sight,” says Rick Lyon, EVP and head of commercial real estate at Capital One. “All open the door to new opportunities.”

Instant Insights /

CRE Trends: Tech, Demographics, Policy Will Converge

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