IRVINE, CA—The Orange County market is disproportionately impacted in a negative way by the newly passed tax bill, so the high-end housing sector here may see some softening of demand, ATTOM Data Solutions' SVP Daren Blomquist tells GlobeSt.com. The firm recently reported that as a result of the plan, the mortgage interest deduction will be lowered for 3.9% of homebuyers nationwide (roughly 100,000 a year), down from 9.8% of the market impacted with the MID cap at $500,000 instead of $750,000.

The firm's report also states that the property-tax deduction will be lowered for 4.4% of homeowners nationwide (4.1 million).

We spoke with Blomquist about the tax plan's impact on Orange County housing and how residents and homeowners here can prepare for what lies ahead.

GlobeSt.com: What impact could the new tax plan have on Orange County in particular?

Blomquist: About 17% of all Orange County sales involved a mortgage that is above $750,000 (roughly 4,500 sales a year), while about 10% of all homeowners have a property tax bill above $10,000 (roughly 78,000 homeowners). That compares to about 4% of the national market on both counts, meaning that the Orange County market is disproportionately impacted in a negative way by the tax plan, and we would expect to see some softening of demand for high-end housing in Orange County. Conversely, we will likely see even more demand for homes priced below the $950,000-to-$1-million price point (approximately where a $750,000 loan would be needed), putting more pressure on the mid to lower end of the market.

GlobeSt.com: How can residents and homeowners in this market prepare for what may lie ahead with this tax plan?

Blomquist: Homeowners with a tax bill above $10,000 may not have much recourse to avoid the lower deduction they'll be able to take—other than possibly to buy a lower-priced property possibly in another state. The plan no longer includes the capital-gains exclusion for profits from a home sale being excluded if a homeowner has not lived in a home for five of the last eight years (instead of two of the last five years), so at least homeowners who do sell are less likely to be dinged for capital-gains taxes. Prospective homebuyers buying for the first time or moving up into another home may want to consider staying within the thresholds provided in the legislation to get the maximum tax benefit. If they had budgeted for a more expensive home they might consider putting down a bigger down payment or investing the excess in another investment vehicle.

GlobeSt.com: What would you recommend residents and homeowners to avoid because of this tax plan?

Blomquist: Certainly, homeowners should avoid any knee-jerk reactions and consult with their tax advisor about the entire implications of the plan on their taxes. The parts impacting homeownership were just a slice of the bill, and for some homeowners other provisions may counter-balance negatives that come with the homeownership provisions.

GlobeSt.com: What else should our readers take away from this report?

Blomquist: The philosophical bent of the current administration is to pull back on government supports for homeownership, and I would expect to see this continue to play out in other policies and legislation that is proposed and passed over the next three years.

Instant Insights /

What the Tax Plan Could Do to OC Housing

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