Is Mass Transit Dead?
Rand Stephens says ridership is declining in both rail and bus services across the country because of lower gas prices, increased telecommuting, rising car ownership and of course, ridesharing with UBER and Lyft.
HOUSTON—Mass transit in major metropolitan areas may be reaching a fork in the road, according to Rand Stephens, principal and managing director of Avison Young. He says ridership is declining in both rail and bus services across the country. Factors such as lower gas prices, increased telecommuting, rising car ownership and of course, UBER and Lyft have all contributed to this trend in some metros.
Commuter cities including Houston are now faced with either continuing to invest in current transportation infrastructures or preparing for a variety of scenarios and outcomes. And while Amazon has not publicly stated why it dismissed Houston for its second headquarters, this has spurred an internal reflection of what this city has to offer and what can be improved upon.
“People are speculating about why we weren’t short-listed by Amazon. I don’t think Amazon wanted to compete with energy and healthcare, both of which are dominant industries here,” Stephens tells GlobeSt.com. “And, tech talent was one factor of Amazon’s decision but mass transit is another. But, transportation change is coming.”
Fast-approaching technology such as autonomous buses and driverless ridesharing vehicles should be considerations, says Stephens. This technology is headed towards a disruption in the transportation industry that can translate into huge opportunities down the road, pardon the pun.
Arizona’s relaxed driving laws have put the state at the forefront of driverless testing with companies such as Google’s Waymo and Intel’s Mobileye. Keolis, a transportation company, has already begun public transit service on open roads in Nevada, and Transdev is launching operations of autonomous shuttles on open roads this year. And, for the first time, the California Department of Motor Vehicles is allowing shared autonomous vehicles to travel on public roads in the state. Contra Costa Transportation Authority is leading a pilot demonstration project in the San Ramon, CA business park, Bishop Ranch, to test electric low-speed multi-passenger autonomous vehicles manufactured by EasyMile.
“To remain relevant, transit agencies must have a vision for the future, including the role that driverless technology will play,” says Lauren Isaac, director of business initiatives for the North American operation of EasyMile.
Investing in traditional modes of public transportation and infrastructure is pointless when the future of transportation is shifting towards driverless technology, Stephens points out.
“Why would we as a city invest in something that’s not working and will soon be outdated?” Stephens tells GlobeSt.com. “Texas has invested a lot of money into roads and light rail. Driverless vehicles could enhance that type of mass transit.”
The Houston Metro recently spent $2.1 billion dollars on the expansion of the Houston light rail system, including new park-and-ride lots and new buses for dedicated lanes along Houston’s Post Oak Boulevard. The Woodlands Express is also planning to add new routes to accommodate increased population growth and increased job dispersal. Yet, ridership is down for both The Woodlands Express (18.7% decrease from the daily average in 2014) and for the Houston Metro (7% decline from last year for all mass transit), according to local reports. In fact, nationally, the trend is the same, with 31 of 35 major metropolitan areas in the US reporting a drop in public transportation ridership, according to a recent report in the Washington Post cited by Stephens.
“When you’re the fourth largest city in the country, with a population of 2.4 million, you’re going to have traffic issues. However, Houston’s freeways overall are very well designed with multiple lanes that are spacious and have lots of access roads for convenient turnarounds. This makes it perfectly positioned to support a system of ACES (autonomous, connected, electric and shared) vehicles. The technology for them to communicate with each other is already here,” Stephens says. “The fact that Houston does not have a heavily equipped mass transit network may turn out to be a blessing. It is an opportunity for transit agencies to keep their eye on the road and work toward producing pilot programs and plans that re-imagine public transportation. The traditional public transit business model has already been disrupted.”