In the upside down world of the stock market, continued good news is bad news. The better employment becomes, and the longer GDP growth continues, then the ten year goes higher and the stock market goes lower despite near historically improving economic data.
The traders' mentality is that rates will continue to rise as the economy continues to improve, and so capital will switch to bonds from stocks to bonds. While that is partially true, the underlying reality is the economy is doing great, consumers are spending, and factories continue to expand and increase production.
While the initial print on jobs was low, the revisions of past two months was 87,000, so the three month average was still excellent and the hurricane last month skewed the numbers for September. Wages continued up. There is concern that once the tax reform impact and QE wind down end in January, and the corporate guidance remains to suggest earnings will slow, then the stock market will supposedly drop a lot. That is one view.
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Joel Ross
Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.
