Will There Be A Recession in 2020, Or Not

Professional economists, some on the slightly left, forecast a recession in mid to late 2020. Here is their rationale. Labor shortages and cost increases in wages and imports will cause increasing inflation in 2019. That will cause the Fed to raise three times. The 10-year will rise to a level that housing and other development will be heavily impacted and continue a downward path. Leveraged loans, which are basically subordinated floating rate junk debt, will fall into default. The mortgage and shadow bank market will lose liquidity and freeze up. The stock market will decline further, thereby raising the cost of capital for public companies and losses to investors. Economic growth in the EU and other areas will continue to be weak. The fiscal stimulus of the tax cuts and budget deficits we now experience have added 1% to GDP in 2018 and will again in 2019, but by 2020 they will no longer provide the extra lift to the economy. Recession will then occur by mid-year 2020, just before the election. While all of this is a valid potential; scenario, there are other possible scenarios.

Despite the decline of the stock market, the US economy is still doing very well. Unemployment is likely to drop further to 3.6% or even 3.5% in the next couple of months. While wages are rising, they are not rising very fast, nor are they being pushed up due to inflation which remains only a little above 2%, while wages rise at 2.9%. The increase in wages is likely to increase, but it is unclear if it will be at much more than 3%. There is no good data on the increase in productivity, but there is evidence the introduction of much more technology has improved productivity at a faster rate than has been the case. Measuring productivity is acknowledged by economist to be more a guess than a fact. GDP in Q4 is likely to be 3%, and maybe better.

Banks are in the best shape they have ever been, there is a lot of liquidity in most financial markets, and a lot of capital sitting on the sidelines right now. Loan underwriting has mostly been good and while it is slipping, and becoming covenant light again, it is still far from the very sloppy way it was done in 2005-2007. Home mortgages are being far better underwritten, and the 20% down rule, verification of income, much more realistic appraisals, and no more teaser interest only loans have mostly eliminated the outrages of 2005-2006 which led to the crash. Today, most people have refinanced their existing mortgage or gotten a new mortgage at ultra-low rates of the past few years, so they are not under any of the pressure we saw in 2008. Mortgage rates are still very low at 4.8% compared to what many of us considered normal at 8% years ago. The problem for housing is prices have risen a little too high, too many new buyers have student debt and do not have the 20% down, and so even at 4.8% they just do not have the cash or credit now.

Despite steel tariffs and tariffs on China, the number of companies affected by tariffs is estimated to only be9% of the economy. Wal Mart and other major retailers bought their Christmas inventories pre-tariffs, so Christmas margins will not be as impacted as one might expect. Christmas is very likely to be better than forecast and that will lead to a rising stock market, and more cap ex expansion spending. Consumers financial situation is better than it has been in over a decade, and with higher take home pay and job security, and not excessive credit card debt, spending should old up well. With oil prices at $50 as we go into the heating and Christmas travel season, consumers will have excess cash to help repay credit card debt incurred at Christmas.

One can assume that in light of rising rates, most CFO’s and real estate borrowers will convert floaters into longer term fixed while rates remain low. They will also redirect tax savings into debt reduction instead of buybacks. This will alleviate the pressure when rates rise. While corporate earnings growth will likely drop to a more realistic 8%-10% next year from 26% now, that growth is still very strong. The current stock market decline is likely reflecting that change already, so the reset we see now will likely fade away and stabilize soon.

Most important, if there is enough concern that the first scenario of a pending recession is believed by the Fed, then they will likely pause in March or June. That is the key. When does the Fed stop. If Fed funds stop at 2.5% or close to that, then the pressure on the economy will be relieved and we can look ahead to good results in 2019 and 2020.

You need to decide which scenario you think is the more realistic and likely and proceed form there. There are so many black swans in the air right now it is impossible for anyone to really forecast 2020 with confidence. Will Brexit get approved, will Italy and the EU come to some understanding, will the Dems force a shut down by trying to do anything to stop Trump and raise taxes, will there be a war with Iran or will there be an uprising, will cap ex pick up, will housing stabilize, will the Fed pause, will the stock market stabilize and rise, will Trump and Xi find some interim way to say no trade war and no tariff increase in January, will Kim move ahead with denuclearization, will oil stay in the $50-$60 range. These and more uncertainties cloud everything.

The views expressed here are the author’s own and not those of ALM’s Real Estate Media Group.