Slower GDP Growth Is Not A Negative For CRE

Joel Ross

There was no way the torrid rate of growth in corporate earnings will continue this year. The effects of the tax cuts and deregulation had a huge impact for the positive in 2018, but now it is a new year with new problems. That said, for all the talk of a recession in 2019, the US economy is still growing very nicely and will continue to do so unless unforeseen circumstances interfere. It is likely that GDP will still post 2.5% to 3% growth, at least for the first half of 2019, and possibly into 2020.

Moderate growth and continued profit growth means there is continued investment by companies in new facilities and offices. More importantly, it means consumers continue to experience growing wages. Job security is still strong. Consumers will continue to spend. It is also looking likely that the Fed will not raise rates anytime soon. The combination of a continuing strong job market, moderate growth in wages, improving productivity through technology investments, solid consumers balance sheets, and a moderate growth in GDP, means it is unlikely there will be inflation.