CoStar Data Shows Need for Focused Retail Strategies
After analyzing a decade of CoStar data, the professional services group BDO provides insights for succeeding in tougher retail times.
NEW YORK CITY—Accounting, tax and professional advisory group BDO reviewed a decade of CoStar data for multiple sectors. Highlights from the retail and industrial sections of their “2019 Real Estate and Construction Compass” were not overly optimistic but provide investment insights.
The report states, “At a national level, vacancy levels are at a 10-year high according to CoStar data. In the past two years, absorption rates have plummeted to historic lows and show little sign of recovery.”
Although New York City is one of the world’s shopping capitals, over the last year retail rental rates and average sales rates lagged behind the national figures in growth rates. In New York City, the retail rental rate from 2017 to 2018 fell from $76.45 to $75.58, declining 1.14%. In that same time period the city’s average sales prices fell from $897.88 per square foot to $884.42 per square foot, representing a 1.50% decline.
From 2017 to 2018, nationally the retail rental rate actually rose from $18.27 per square foot to $18.82 per square foot, a 3.01% increase. The average sales prices also rose from $198.85 per square foot to $200.27, amounting to a .71% increase.
However, for 2018, the national annual average retail vacancy total was 14.8% compared to 12.15% in New York City. But from the prior year, New York’s vacancy had jumped from 8.47%. Nationally, the incline in vacancy was smaller, moving up from 12.4%.
BDO notes investors have reacted finding appeal in the revitalization of secondary and tertiary markets. But the professional services and advisory firm also cautions: “Not all these rising stars are destined for long-term success, but they’re often lumped into the same category of cities experiencing a renaissance. Cities like Portland, Austin, Nashville and Milwaukee do have some characteristics in common, but owners and operators would be mistaken to bundle them together when making investment plans.”
It warns in the next decade, the emerging markets will diverge with winners and losers.
As for urban areas, the BDO report points to experiential store concepts and redevelopment of spaces into distribution centers as future opportunities. Regarding the national decline of vacancies with industrial properties, the report states urban areas for distribution are likely to remain in high demand.
GlobeSt.com had previously reported on businesses such as Target’s small format stores and IKEA’S planning studios opening in urban-centric locations like New York City. Plus, with last-mile distribution centers, companies catering to faster delivery like Innovo, Atalaya and Nan Fung, are continuing to seek space closer to larger urban areas. These case studies align with the CoStar data as possibly instructive retail investment strategies.