New York City skyline/ Photo by Emiliano Bar on Unsplash

NEW YORK CITY—The Real Estate Board of New York's Real Estate Broker Confidence Index for Q1 2019 (including both commercial and residential industries) hit 6.92 out of 10. This represented an increase of 1.06 since brokers last took the survey in the fourth quarter of 2018 when confidence levels were at 5.86.

In the five-year time span, broker confidence was the highest in the first quarter of 2015 at 9.05 and hit the lowest in the third quarter of 2018 dipping to 4.75.

For commercial brokers in Q1 2019, the Confidence Index was even higher at 7.24. This represented a .78 increase from Q4 2018 when confidence levels were at 6.46. Year-over-year, compared to Q1 2018, where it was 6.02, commercial broker confidence was up 1.22.

Similar to the overall broker Confidence Index for the last five years, commercial broker confidence was also the highest at the first quarter of 2015 hitting 9.24. The commercial broker index hit its nadir in the third quarter of 2016 at 5.21.

In the REBNY survey, brokers' current confidence levels were based on the strength of the economy as well as the financing and leasing market.

“Overall confidence among both residential and commercial brokers showed marked improvement from a year ago and reflects a positive outlook on the real estate market heading into the summer,” says John H. Banks, REBNY president. “However, New York City brokers also expressed concern over the impact of recent policy changes and Albany's proposed rent reforms.”

Some of the concerns in REBNY's survey surrounded anti-business sentiments following Amazon's rescinding its HQ2 decision, commercial rent control, proposed rent regulation changes, interest rates, and office and retail vacancies.

One broker wrote, “The negative attitude toward business, the pile on taxes and fees, the restrictive environment and rent regulations, all harm the New York City commercial real estate market.”

Governor Cuomo has indicated support of renewing expiring New York City rent control regulations, which are scheduled to expire in June. Some proposals circulating in Albany which Banks opposes include prohibiting rent increases due to major capital improvements and individual apartment improvements in rent stabilized properties.

On May 28, in multiple news outlets, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported mortgage applications fell 3.3% from last week despite low mortgage rates. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was at 4.33%. This was the lowest level since January 2018. On May 29, USA Today quoted experts saying jitters over a trade war with China and a resulting weakening of the economy were keeping potential buyers off the market.

However, a more optimistic broker provided the following survey comment: “Our economy is strong: companies are growing and profitable [and] are seeking talent in New York City. People want to live and work in New York City.”

Instant Insights /

REBNY Broker Confidence Index Up for Q1 2019

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