Overall, SoCal’s Population Is Shrinking
While people are continuing to move to Southern California, the overall population in the Los Angeles-Orange County area is shrinking.
“California as a state is experiencing slow growth at 0.4% but it is important to keep in mind that the LA-OC market is one of the most populated metros in the nation,” Paulina Torres, research analyst, at JLL, tells GlobeSt.com. “It wasn’t until 2004 that the LA-OC market experienced its first decrease in population. Since then, annual population growth has averaged to 0.3% for the market.
There are a few dynamics at play here. One is the high cost of living in the area, and another is lower fertility rates, which keeps population growth down. As the lack of affordable housing continues and the overall profile of migrants into the state establishes itself as highly educated, which directly correlates with lower fertility) we can expect this slow growth to continue,” says Torres.
Surrounding Western US market have benefited from the trend, and actually show directly opposite population growth patterns. “Other west coast markets like Phoenix and Salt Lake City are currently one of the fastest growing areas of the nation. But it is important to look at who is moving into these areas,” says Torres. “According to the National Movers Study by United Van Lines, California has had net out-migration among most demographic groups but it has gained among those with higher incomes of $110,000 per year or more, and higher education, with graduate degrees. Other West Coast markets essentially show completely opposite trends where a large percentage of inbound movers are making the move to Arizona and Utah for retirement.”
While most inward migration to Southern California comes from cold weather markets, largely on the East Coast, the outward migration patterns are much different. Most Southern Californians are moving to neighboring markets and other warm weather cities. “The largest outbound migration flows target western states. If people move out of the LA-OC market, they are not going too far,” says Torres. “In fact, the largest population loss was to the Inland Empire. Of the top 10 metros receiving highest net out-migration from LA-OC, half of them are still in California. Revisiting the National Movers Study, 22% of outbound movers relocated out of the state for retirement. Looking at age groups, 27.03% of inbound movers were 34 years old or younger while only 15.05% of outbound movers fit this age group. On the other hand, 27.62% of individuals moving out of California were 65 years old or older (18.68% of inbound movers fit this age group).”