Q2 2019 US Lodging Market Update

Daniel Lesser

With 121 consecutive months of growth through Q2 2019, the U.S. economy is now in record territory for the longest expansion period in history.  The decade long economic expansion has been fueled in part by job growth, record low unemployment rates, and low interest rates in the capital markets. During the first half of 2019, America has continued to add jobs, albeit at a slower pace compared to last year. U.S. consumer confidence remains vigorous and stock market indices continue to set record high levels. To mitigate the risks of slower global growth and trade-policy uncertainty, during the near term, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce interest rates. While current economic indicators are a healthy backdrop for the lodging industry, the duration of this expansion has rendered many economic pundits now fearful of the U.S. entering a recessionary environment during the near term.  With this said, most anticipate that when a recession does occur, it will be less severe than the Great Recession of 2009-2009.

During Q2 2019, the U.S. lodging industry experienced generally positive performance metrics with a slight 0.1 percent decline in occupancy and modest increases in average daily rate (ADR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR).  The sectors first half of the year resulted in occupancy levels remaining relatively static along with weak pricing confidence resulting in lackluster RevPAR growth, however growth, nonetheless.