While the U.S. continues to be in the midst of its longestuninterrupted economic expansion in modern history, slowing growthmetrics along with abundant geopolitical uncertainties areheightening perceived risk of impending recession. Concernsinclude:

• U.S. GDP growth is decelerating and during the near‐termincreases are anticipated to remain modest;
• The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 125.1in September, down from a revised August 2019 reading of134.2;
• Trade with Canada and Mexico falls into the same uncertaintynow gripping U.S. relations with China and Europe. A failure ofCongress to ratify a new NAFTA deal which will govern traderelations with these two neighboring countries is a warning signthat illustrates how political volatility could drag down the U.S.economy even if its fundamentals remain strong;
• The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's recession probabilityindicator, which gauges the likelihood of a recession within thecoming 12 months, rose steeply from around 10 percent at thebeginning of 2019 to 37.9 percent in August;
• An inverted interest rate yield curve has endured for severalmonths, a phenomenon that has signaled each U.S. economic recessionsince 1950;
• Ultra‐low interest rates continue to trend downwards. Whilethis is a positive for borrowers, it is also raising speculationthat America is destined for negative yields like where Japan andmuch of Europe have been stuck for some time;
• Washington DC is currently in an impeachment frenzy;
• Unknown effects of Brexit which depend on whether the UK leaveswith a withdrawal agreement, or before an agreement is ratified("no‐deal" Brexit);
• In response to a proposed extradition bill, which included anagreement with mainland China, since June, Hong Kong has beensubject to mass demonstrations with continuous violent clashes andrioting;
• The Middle East is currently more combustible than ever.Conflict(s) resulting in global ramifications could break out invarious cities/countries for a multitude of reasons;

Despite daily warnings of possible economic fragility, jobscreation statistics remain relatively steady and personal incomescontinue to grow, both of which could sustain the financial systemduring whatever rough patches may be encountered. Not everyonebelieves a recession is imminent, and contrarians can point toother metrics that paint a much sunnier picture. Either way, theprevailing view seems to be that when the next recession hits, itwill be less severe than the last one.

Through this past August the U.S. hotel industry's expansioncycle reached 114 months, as hotel revenue per available room(RevPAR) declined year over year only two months during thisperiod, namely during August 2018 and in June 2019. Generally,national hotel supply and demand growth are in equilibriumresulting in relatively flat occupancy levels and lackluster RevPARgrowth stemming from average daily rate increases barely equal toinflation (and decelerating).