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The risk of a recession in 2020 has fallen from previous reports. This month, UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate published its latest economic analysis, reducing the risk of a recession from earlier predications. The new analysis comes as the result of several pressure points, like the trade disputes and housing starts, have improved.

“A lot of worries from September have gone away. There seems to be a temporary truce in trade; the new NAFTA, the USMCA, is passing; housing starts are better; and the stock market broke out, and there is a wealth effect coming from that that will help the consumer,” David Shulman, senior economist for the Ziman Center and UCLA Anderson Forecast, tells GlobeSt.com. “The recession risks are now lower. If we want to put numbers on it, we would have predicted 45% in September, which is pretty high. Today, we are predicting a 30% chance of a recession, which is a big downgrade.”

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Kelsi Maree Borland

Kelsi Maree Borland is a freelance journalist and magazine writer based in Los Angeles, California. For more than 5 years, she has extensively reported on the commercial real estate industry, covering major deals across all commercial asset classes, investment strategy and capital markets trends, market commentary, economic trends and new technologies disrupting and revolutionizing the industry. Her work appears daily on GlobeSt.com and regularly in Real Estate Forum Magazine. As a magazine writer, she covers lifestyle and travel trends. Her work has appeared in Angeleno, Los Angeles Magazine, Travel and Leisure and more.

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