San Diego Population Growth Is Slowing

San Diego’s population growth is slowing. A new report from Cushman & Wakefield, San Diego’s population grew by a mere .6% in the last five years, down from .9% in the last 10 years. Over the last 50 years. The population grew by 1.8%. The decrease in population growth, however, doesn’t necessarily mean that fewer people are moving to the submarket.

“One key reason for the reduction in growth is a result of decline in the number of births, gain in the number of deaths due to aging population and decline in the nations underage (ages 0-18) population as well as millennials,” Jolanta Campion, director of research in San Diego at Cushman & Wakefield, tells GlobeSt.com. “Even though 56% of San Diego’s residents are 39 and younger, it is much lower compared to the long-term 50-year average of 63%. In 1980s, this cohort represented 67% of the total population compared to 64% in 1990s and 59% in 2000’s, continuing to drop to 56% in the last decade (2010+).”

New births in San Diego are falling at a similar pace to the slowed population growth. “In 2018, 12,700 babies were born in San Diego County compared to the 20-year average of over 14,700 births per year,” Campion says. “Reduced natural increase (the excess of birth over death) is a result of millennials choosing to delay family formation and having fewer children in general. Some list economics and the cost of raising a child as a reason, some choose to focus on their careers and some want more leisure time and personal freedom among other reasons.”

In addition to the slowed birthrate, the baby boomer demographic is actually increasing. “Furthermore, the population 65 and older represents 14% of the total San Diego residents compared to 50-year average of 11% and is forecasted to increase to 16%,” says Campion.

This trend in San Diego is actually a trend throughout the nation and the globe, and it is keeping population rates from stalled to slow growth. “In short, lower fertility rates will keep overall population growth in check—consistent with national and global trend—and our focus should be on retaining and attracting talent to our region to ensure continued economic prosperity and availability of highly educated workforce that represents working age cohort (ages 20-64) as opposed to overall population growth rate,” says Campion.

It isn’t all about the birthrate, however. San Diego, like much of Southern California is also seeing negative net migration. “San Diego has also been affected by overall negative net migration, which a main reason has been housing affordability,” says Campion. “With an increased amount of housing supply, which the county is moving toward, we would anticipate for things to improve in this area.”