Stan Johnson Broker: It’s Hard to Predict How the Market Will React

This economic event is unprecedented. While some are using the 2008 Financial Crisis as a guidebook, there has never been a public health event that has sparked an economic disruption of this magnitude. As a result, uncertainty is rampant, according to Brett Butler of Stan Johnson Co., and it is difficult to predict a path toward recovery.

“The 2008 Financial Crisis is the only comparable event that comes to mind, but that was different due to bad lending practices,” Butler tells GlobeSt.com. “I have never seen a health crisis threaten the market before. It’s hard to say how the market will react with all the uncertainty—when will businesses be able to open again? How much impact will the downtime have on the overall economy? We’ll just have to wait and see.”

Uncertainty is guiding the market today, and most players are pausing completely. “It’s caused a lot of uncertainty in the market, and there are quite a few buyers, lenders, and tenants taking a wait-and-see approach,” says Butler. “The lending markets are all but frozen, as they pause temporarily to assess the situation. Some buyers have elected to hit the brakes, although not all—some are still quite active. But the longer-term unknown is how tenants will react and be impacted. Some sectors have chosen, or been forced, to close up shop, which could lead to issues paying rent if that last for a while.”

In the short-term, brokers will be able to keep up with business, but ultimately completing deals without personal contact will also impact transactions. “On a practical level, needing to work from home likely won’t affect the brokerage business, as we can do virtually everything by phone and email,” says Butler. “The potential issues are with deals that require a physical presence.”

This includes everything from ongoing construction projects to onsite inspections during acquisitions. “If local governments are furloughed, what happens to the developer who can’t get rezoning approval, sign off on inspections, or permits?,” adds Butler. “These are the types of issues that could cause developers to default on construction loans or miss a critical deadline turning a property over to a tenant.”

In the interim, Butler recommends staying calm and up-to-date on the latest news. “Stay calm and stay informed,” says Butler. “In times of uncertainty, reach out to your trusted sources for advice and intelligence. We’ll get through this, and it’s important to not lose sight of your long-term goals.”