Jolanta Campion

The robust technology sector has become a major driver of employment in San Diego, and it could help the market offset major job loss during the coronavirus pandemic. Research from Cushman & Wakefield forecasts 2.9% total employment loss in San Diego and 3.2% employment loss in the tech sector this year.

"Job losses in the technology sector in San Diego are expected this year as a result of COVID-19 yet not as significant as losses in other sectors such as hotels, restaurants and retail among other service providing sectors," Jolanta Campion, research director in San Diego for Cushman & Wakefield, tells GlobeSt.com.

The technology sector accounts for nearly 9% of total employment in San Diego, and the contraction will mean the loss of 4,300 jobs this year. "To put these projected numbers into perspective, the technology sector had recorded losses of 4,240 jobs from 2009 to 2011 stemming from the Great Recession, accounting for 4.9% of the total 86,600 jobs lost countywide then," says Campion.

In 2021, however, Campion expects growth in both technology and total employment, which indicates the recovery of jobs lost in the second half of the year. "All employment sectors are forecasted to grow 1.4%, a gain of 21,000 jobs, in 2021," adds Campion. "Employment in technology sector will grow by 1%, or a gain of 1,280 jobs, in 2021, representing 6.1% of total jobs added."

While no industry is exempt from the dislocation caused by the coronavirus, technology is poised to perform well through the downturn. "Despite the unavoidable challenges resulting from COVID-19 in all areas of life, we would expect the technology sector to remain more resilient and likely grow and positively impact demand for San Diego commercial real estate in the second half of 2020 or entering 2021 once the market navigates its way through this early pain," adds Campion.

Campion has a similar prediction for national employment numbers. National employment has fallen dramatically in the first weeks of the pandemic, but there is opportunity to regain lost jobs in the second half of the year. "Nationwide, initial claims filed over the last four weeks are already more than double the job losses registered during the Great Recession, and the unemployment rate could reach double digits," says Campion. "While the numbers have been eye-opening, it is likely that the data will continue to deteriorate substantially in the April and May job reports before any turnaround takes hold. Importantly, however, many of these job losses may prove to be temporary as the economy is widely expected to enter recovery in the second half of 2020."