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Around the beginning of April, it became clear that an economic recovery would not be the V shape that many expected in the early days of the coronavirus. Instead, the outlook for the US commercial real estate sector, to say nothing of the overall economy, was utterly upended and research firms set about adjusting their initial expectations that the coronavirus would leave just a glancing blow on the industry.

A report from CBRE found that the US economy, which is now in a recession, will stabilize in the third quarter, start to recover in the fourth, and grow at more than 5% in 2021 due to pent-up demand and major government stimulus.

The US commercial real estate recovery will trail the economic rebound and span 12 to 30 months, depending on the sector, it said, with categories like industrial and logistics recovering within the year, and multifamily over 18 months. Retail, food and beverage and the hotel sector are facing a longer recovery of up to 30 months.

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Erika Morphy

 

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