Los Angeles-based Beacon Economics is stillbullish on a swift recovery once stay-at-home orders at lifted.While a recession is imminent and the second quarter will see asevere drop in GDP, Beacon Economics expects a sharp V-shapedrecovery. The firm has taken a mid-line stance since the onset ofthe crisis.
In late March, it wasn't sure the pandemic would ultimatelyresult in a recession—at least by the traditional definition of twoconsecutive quarters of economic contraction. While the firm hasadjusted its outlook slightly, the current forecast is largelyunchanged. It expects negative 30% GDP growth in the second quarterbefore a rebound of 25% followed by 4% in the third and fourthquarters.
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