Lodging and leisure and non-food retail sectors would be amongthe hardest hit if coronavirus lockdowns continue or are reinstateddue to future infection spikes, according to a new Fitch Ratingsheat map.

Commodity, airline and gaming industries would also suffer thegreatest impacts if a meaningful economic recovery is delayedbeyond 2021, the report concluded.

Fitch's baseline assumption is that the economy will begin toimprove in the third quarter "after a short but severe globalrecession." A "downside" scenario assumes COVID-19 flare-ups andrenewed stay-at-home orders that could push recovery topre-pandemic levels to around the middle of the decade. Otherworst-case assumptions include sharper economic contractions in theUS and Europe, double-dip slowdowns in China and East Asia, wagedeclines and job losses across income brackets, prolonged downturnsin financial markets and a collapse in demand for oil.