This recession is divergent from past downturns, both in itsonset—a pandemic that triggered a global economic shutdown—and itstrends and patterns, which are still emerging. During a digitalconversation last week hosted by George SmithPartners, panelists—Bethany Logan Ropa ofUBS Investment Bank; Tim Sullivanof Meyers Research; and WesRogers of Landmark Properties—discussedwhat has been most surprising as the market shifted in the last fewmonths.

Sullivan noted that the trends have widely varied based on themarket and the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak, meaning that theimpact in New York City looked much different than in Austin,Texas. Jobs were also lost at a much faster rate than in pastrecessions. "We lost more jobs quicker than any other downturn thanin the history of the US. We are hoping that it is going to comeback quickly," he said. Sullivan also was surprised to see quickspending action and a relatively unaffected home building industry."The power of fiscal support from the government has been amazing,"he said. "Don't discount it, and has probably been the thing thathas kept both sides together. The resiliency of the new home markethas been remarkable. Some builders are trading at stock pricesabove where they were before COVID."

Rogers and Ropa were both surprised at the resiliency in certainaspects of the market. For Rogers, the firm's student housingportfolio has outperformed expectations. "When this crisis started,we identified some important risk areas and went into a contingencyplan there," he said. "The first thing was the impact touniversities, which pretty immediately went into online classes. Wehave about 40,000 students, and we were really concerned aboutwhether or not they were going to continue to pay rent and if theywould continue to pre-lease for the fall."