A recent report by Moody's Analytics forecasting the COVID-19pandemic's impact on apartment vacancies found that, even under a"worst case scenario" model, apartment vacancies are not expectedto reach or exceed the historic 8.1% high set in 2009.

In the "Protracted Slump" scenario, accordingto the "Q1 2020: Apartment First Glance" report, Moody's forecast model assumes the second quarter GDPwill contract by more than 30% (annualized), and theeconomy will continue slide until late 2021. Under thisscenario, multifamily vacancies are expected to rise to 7.3% by theend of the year, spiking to as high as 7.7% by the end of 2021.Meanwhile, asking and effective rents would decline by atotal of 5.5% and 6.3% through the end of next year.

However, while these would be larger declines than what thesector experienced on the rent growth side during the GreatRecession, the 8.1% record is still expected to remain outof reach under this scenario for a few reasons, the reportnotes.