A recent report by Moody’s Analytics forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on apartment vacancies found that, even under a “worst case scenario” model, apartment vacancies are not expected to reach or exceed the historic 8.1% high set in 2009.

In the “Protracted Slump” scenario, according to the “Q1 2020: Apartment First Glance” report,  Moody’s forecast model assumes the second quarter GDP will contract by more than 30% (annualized), and the economy will continue slide until late 2021. Under this scenario, multifamily vacancies are expected to rise to 7.3% by the end of the year, spiking to as high as 7.7% by the end of 2021. Meanwhile, asking and effective rents would decline by a total of 5.5% and 6.3% through the end of next year.

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Zack Needles

Zack Needles is Global Managing Editor, Regional Brands at ALM. He is also the Managing Editor of The Legal Intelligencer, Pennsylvania Law Weekly, Delaware Business Court Insider and Delaware Law Weekly. Contact him at 215-557-2373 or [email protected] On Twitter: @ZackNeedlesTLI.

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