FORT WORTH—As has been widely reported, Pier 1 is facing the end of its road. Foot traffic analytics firm, Placer.ai, recently analyzed pre-COVID performance and post-pandemic implications to determine Pier 1's closure beneficiaries.

When attempting to identify the brands with the highest likelihood to gain from these closings, one effective mechanism is to look at cross-shopping patterns. To do so, Placer.ai analyzed cross-shopping percentages between January through May in 2018, 2019 and 2020 to create a rough idea of which brands may be best positioned to take in Pier 1's former customer base.

Pier 1 has a significantly higher proportion of visitors coming from another retail location before visiting and a higher percentage of visits going to another retailer after. These cross-shopping patterns can be especially important for this type of brand, which shows a strong element of being part of a multi-trip journey.

Averaging out data from those periods in 2019 and 2020 shows that 30% of Pier 1 visitors are coming from another retailer directly before visiting a Pier 1 while more than 33% visit one immediately after. So whether this is a unique particularity of Pier 1 or a wider statement about those other stores, the closing of these stores has some significance for competitors.

The obvious starting point is Walmart and Target, though these numbers are clearly buoyed by the fact that many people shop at either Walmart or Target during a five-month period. However, it does further indicate the power and somewhat endless opportunities of these brands, says Placer.ai.

The next group is dominated by the kings of the DIY hill in Home Depot and Lowe's which both have more than 40% cross-shopping with Pier 1. Though the ready-made element of Pier 1 isn't the core focus for these brands, there is still something to be said for a potential uptick in traffic.

The next tier may be the most interesting. Home Goods and Bed, Bath & Beyond have very high levels of cross shopping with the average actually weighed down by pandemic closures and shopping patterns in 2020. As a result, both brands have a powerful opportunity to leverage these closures by targeting Pier 1 audiences to attempt to fill the gap Pier 1 will leave, according to the report.

And the same holds true for brands with lower cross shopping than the national giants, but still relatively high levels of overlap. In other words, there are opportunities that can be leveraged. On a local level, looking at the True Trade Area for any Pier 1 should create ready-made targeting tool through a variety of channels to help bring these customers into the mix for a Pier 1 replacement, says the Placer.ai report.

The point is further reinforced when looking at how closely the audiences resemble each other. Analyzing household income breakdowns shows the tremendous similarity in audiences between several of these brands and Pier 1. The result is an opportunity for those brands that move fast enough to take it.

"Pier 1′s struggles don't remove the fact that they did have a loyal and fervent customer base, and that this audience is going to look to purchase these products elsewhere," Ethan Chernofsky, vice president of marketing at Placer.ai, tells GlobeSt.com. "Obviously, the overlap with a Target or Walmart is highest, but there is a significant opportunity for a multitude of players including Bed, Bath & Beyond, Home Goods and others. The real question is who is going to take advantage of the vacuum. From understanding exactly who the Pier 1 audience is on a store-by-store basis to examining how to best capitalize on this closure, brands in this space are being presented with a chance to drive real value by filling the gap for these consumers."

Instant Insights /

Post-Pandemic Prognosis for Scooping Up Former Pier 1 Shoppers

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