Failed CRE Deals Continue to Rise Amid Pandemic
The number of terminated contract deals as a percentage of closed transactions has risen from 2.1% in April to 2.9% in May—seven times the average percentage of deals falling through between 2015 and 2019.
Real estate deals are collapsing across the country as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. That’s according to a new report by Real Capital Analytics, which says the percentage of deals falling out of contract in US, European and Asian markets have jumped in recent months, while at the same time the total number of completed deals in those areas have sunk as well.
Specifically, the report said the number of terminated contract deals as a percentage of closed transactions has risen from 2.1% in April to 2.9% in May. That number is up significantly over the 0.7% of deals that fell through in March, and is seven times the average percentage of deals falling through between 2015 and 2019, according to the report.
The report also noted that number is still far below the 12.8% fall-through rate the markets saw during the peak of the Great Recession towards the end of the 2000s.
According to the report, the largest deal, based on dollar volume, that fell through in recent months was Mirae Asset’s decision to back out of a plan to spend $5.8 billion to buy US luxury hotels from Anbang Insurance.
Europe saw the highest uptick in deals collapsing, according to the report, which said the termination rate in that region reached 3% in May. The report said that marks 200 basis points above the long-term average level for the continent. Honing in on the region even closer, the report said the UK saw the highest concentration of busted deals, while the broader office and retail asset classes saw large concentrations as well. In one high-profile deal that fell through, Orion forfeited a $26 million deposit when it walked away from a deal to acquire seven retail parks from Hammerson.
The Asia Pacific market saw a lower percentage of deals fall apart in May over April, according to the report, with that number falling from 4.5% to 2.6%. But, the report noted, the May figure is still 120 bps higher than the long-term average for busted deals.
The Chinese and South Korean markets were the hardest hit, with those two countries accounting for 90 percent of the assets involved in busted deals, the report said. It also accounted for 80 percent of the volume as well. The largest collapsed deal in the region involved Blackstone’s decision in May to end its discussions to acquire Soho China.
The company noted that it performed the review of collapsed deals by using the new “terminated” status filter on the transaction module on its website.