UCLA Anderson senior economist David Shulman started his presentation at the UCLA Anderson Forecast June 2020 Economic Outlook with a nursery rhyme: "It will take time for all of the kings horses and all of the kings men to put the economy back together again." The economy, according to Shulman, has had a great fall and many parts of it are broken.

"Our view is that this is not going to be a V-shaped recovery. It is going to take time to get back to where the economy was in the fourth quarter of 2019 in terms of GDP and unemployment," said Shulman in the virtual event. "The economy has had a very big fall, and a lot of things in the economy have been broken. Even if we got a vaccine, the recovery will not happen right away."

Instead, the economic recovery will look more like a Nike swoosh, with a deep fall followed by a slow and steady recovery. According to Shulman, this pattern will include a start-and-stop pandemic, a vaccine available in 2021, but that takes time to deliver to the population and an economy that shifts from a focus on efficiency to a focus on resilience. In addition, Shulman predicts another stimulus package in July to expand the support programs in the CARES Act. Stimulus programs have increased the deficient to $3 trillion for the year, and an additional stimulus program will likely add an additional $1 trillion to the deficit.