Right now, many commercial real estate investors are sitting and waiting for distressed deals.
But a look at the September US RCA CPPI National All-Property Index from Real Capital Analytics suggests they might have to wait a little longer.
The RCA CPPI rose just 1.4% year-over-year in September. To be sure, some investors have taken haircuts. An investor sold the Embassy Suites hotel in Manhattan for an $80 million loss after holding the asset for just 20 months, according to a post by Jim Costello, senior vice president at RCA. But he cautions that “high-profile deals are not the entirety of the US commercial real estate market.”
In the COVID era, which encompasses deals completed in Q2 and Q3 2020, apartment and industrial have emerged as clear winners for property sales. Fifty-four percent of apartments sold showed annual price growth between 0% and 10%, while more than 20% showed annual price growth between 10% and 20%. Nearly 60% of industrial properties saw annual price growth between 0% and 10%, while more than 20% showed annual price growth between 10% and 20%, according to RCA.
More than 50% of office properties sold showed annual price growth between 0% and 10%, while more than 20% showed annual price declines between 0% and 10%. In hard-hit hotels, nearly 40% of sales showed yearly price increases of between 0% and 10%, while an almost equal number showed annual price declines between 0% and 10%. Roughly 50% of retail sales showed yearly price growth between 0% and 10%, but 42% saw annual price declines between 0% and 10%.
While owners haven’t been forced to sell as they were during the Global Financial Crisis, income challenges may force discount dispositions in some sectors.
“A surge in troubled loans in the hotel and retail sectors in the COVID period will likely lead to a surge in distressed asset sales for these sectors,” Costello wrote. “There are some troubled loans for the office sector, but for the most part, property income challenges have yet to hit the market. The longer social distancing continues, the more challenges the office sector will face.”
When that happens, buyers will be ready. “The deals aren’t hitting the street yet,” Mark Foster, attorney at Snell & Wilmer in California, told GlobeSt.com in an earlier interview. “So what I’m trying to figure out is how they’re going to hit the street and what the pricing is going to look like.”