Without a doubt, 2020 was the year of the Black Swan event. No one outside of epidemiologist circles had foreseen a pandemic, and very few were prepared for its effects on the economy. With vaccine distribution underway, 2021 has a brighter outlook.

Still, there are risks to the economy. Fortunately, these risks are a known quantity—grey swans, as S&P Global Market Intelligence calls them in a recent post.

But having survived the pandemic, let's not become inured to lesser risks. Just because we can foresee some of these developments happening doesn't make them less dangerous. S&P Global Market Intelligence has outlined some of these possible events using analysis from Macro Hive. While they are not specific to commercial real estate, they will have an impact on the US economy and thus affect our industry. Two of particular interest to CRE: a drop in the recent record equity highs and the onset of inflation.