Even if the CMBS delinquency rate retreats, the default amount is still rising.
CoStar Group expects a large scale of distressed sales to hit mid-2021. The company modeled 16 different scenarios to determine how bad the carnage would be from this recession. In those exercises, the amount of distress landed between $92 billion to $370 billion, though it will likely be $126 billion.
"It's a pretty wide range," says Xiaojing Li, managing director at CoStar Group. "We think it [the amount of distress] could be a blended scenario that is somewhere in the middle."
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Leslie Shaver
Les Shaver has been covering commercial and residential real estate for almost 20 years. His work has appeared in Multifamily Executive, Builder, units, Arlington Magazine in addition to GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum.
