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Analysis

Retail Sales to Exceed $4.3T This Year If Vaccines Hold

Economists are predicting the fastest growth in over two decades.

By Lynn Pollack | February 26, 2021 at 06:32 AM

Retail sales are anticipated to grow between 6.5 and 8.2% to more than $4.33 trillion in 2021 as vaccinations increase and the economy reopens, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual forecast. Online sales are included in that total and are expected to increase by between 18 and 23% to a potential high of $1.19 trillion.

NRF also predicts the overall economy will pick up between 220,000 and 300,000 jobs per month this year, a figure that’s dependent on economic momentum in the second and third quarters. Real GDP growth is expected between 4.5 and 5%, though NRF cautions that the pace of vaccine rollouts could dramatically impact overall numbers.

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