New research from Fitch Ratings raises questions about the extent to which rental assistance under the American Rescue Plan will keep apartment delinquencies low.

Fitch analysts say it's tough to estimate the amount of unpaid back rent despite current mortgage delinquency levels for affordable housing providers being low and only slightly up from pre-COVID levels. And while rental assistance has been a mainstay of the major federal stimulus packages thus far, the lack of data on delinquent rent payments makes it difficult to ascertain whether the assistance provided will be enough to keep delinquencies in check.

The risk for the affordable housing sector is also elevated due to higher unemployment levels for lower income households, and while the outlook for the broader economic recovery is bright, "sustained high unemployment is likely to result in an uptick in delinquencies and evictions, particularly when rental assistance funds are depleted and eviction moratoria expire," according to Fitch.