BTI Partners’ Noah Breakstone On People Moving to Florida

As managing partner of BTI Partners,  one of Florida’s major real estate and land developers with projects in Tampa, Orlando and South Florida, Noah Breakstone is in a good position to watch the effects of the growing flow of new residents entering the state. “South Florida has always been considered New York’s sixth borough but now we are seeing New Yorkers migrate to other parts of the state and COVID has definitely accelerated this trend,” he says. GlobeSt.com spoke with Breakstone about this and other trends. Read excerpts from this conversation in the following interview.

What are the challenges that the home homebuilding industry is facing? And where is it headed this year? 

>What’s interesting about the homebuilding industry is that the supply of developed land is undersupplied. Since the Great Recession, housing starts at that time dropped all the way down to just under 500,000, about a 75 to 80 percent drop. And over the last decade, the housing market never fully recovered. Today, the housing supply is about 3 million units under supply because there isn’t enough ready to build land. 

While the scarcity of land in cities will remain a challenge for homebuilders, the pandemic will most likely reshape the US residential market and could help solve America’s housing crisis. According to a recent survey by the National Association for Business Economics, only about 1 in 10 companies expect all employees to return to their pre-pandemic work arrangements. We will most likely see employers implementing a hybrid model. This would allow employees to live in more affordable areas and commute into the office only a couple days a week. Currently, America’s middle class pays more than 30 percent of their household income in housing just to be a reasonable distance to work so this would be a game changer and  great news for national and regional home builders who can look for land in areas where they could build housing that’s more affordable. Lately affordability has been impacted by other factors, such as cost of lumber and other building materials continuing to increase rapidly and, given affordability constraints of first-time homebuyers, most national homebuilders face downward pressure on operating margins, despite strong homebuying demand.  Also, mortgage rates are trending higher which could reduce homebuyer purchasing power, making it more difficult for homebuilders to pass on the higher costs.

Bringing new inventory to the market will help increase supply and relieve pressure on home sales prices. There is no doubt that developers are building single family development, both for ownership and  rental post-pandemic, across Florida. In fact, we are seeing increasing interest from builders for our over 1400 acre-master-planned community, Crossprairie, located just South of Orlando. We are currently building the infrastructure and getting the land ready to sell to home builders. The community is currently approved for 5,200 homes, townhomes and apartments, 1 million square feet of commercial space, 1.9 million square feet of office space and 600 hotel rooms.

With retail taking a huge hit as a result of the pandemic, what trends are you seeing in that sector? 

Retail is not our predominant business but it’s a sideline that we’re developing more of. We are currently building retail at our development in Tampa, Westshore Marina District, where we are also building Marina Pointe, three luxury condo towers. We have a limited amount of retail, about 35,000 square feet, and we’re finding success with specialty retailers such as local restaurants, wine bars, coffee shops and hair salons. It’s very specific to the neighborhood. We are also building a mixed-use development on Young Circle in the heart of downtown Hollywood in South Florida, where land is constrained. In that region, it’s about infill development and reimagining neighborhoods and this lends itself to different types of retail. We purchased a strip center which doesn’t really serve that market anymore so we will tear it down to build mixed-use towers with  retail on the ground floor. This type of development will attract specific retailers that want to be in a vibrant and artsy area. We also have under contract a second building on  Young Circle in Hollywood. We plan to  build another mixed-use project with 360 multi-family units and ground floor retail. In South Florida, it’s all about building up and not out which is different from other areas of Florida.

We are seeing a lot of people from the northeast and Midwest relocating to Florida. As a developer, are you benefiting from this influx of buyers?

It has been a pretty remarkable change. We are building three luxury waterfront condo towers in Tampa and in the last three to four months, about 70 percent of our buyers have come from New York or the Midwest. According to real estate firm FCP and geospatial analytics group Orbital Insight, Tampa is the number one relocation destination for Americans who have moved during COVID. South Florida came in at number 4 and Orlando at Number 5. Furthermore, according to new US Census Bureau data, Florida gained an estimated 241,256 residents from July 2019 to July 2020. In addition to residents, a number of financial and tech firms are either relocating to the Sunshine State or setting up satellite offices here. There has alway been a migration of Northeasterners to Florida but I believe the pandemic accelerated this trend. I anticipate that this will continue even after the Pandemic.

Has the appetite for financing and refinancing projects slowed among traditional and non-traditional lenders? 

It’s a mixed bag and really depends on the asset class. I think financing is tight for retail and hospitality projects in certain locations. We are currently building Marina Pointe, luxury condo towers in Tampa and recently secured a $92 million construction loan for the project, which is expected to be completed in 2022.

Tampa is very similar to what South Florida was 10 years ago. The location of Marina Pointe, our strong pre-sales and significant deposits made it easy for us to secure financing. The money is definitely available. It really depends on the asset class and location and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Money continues to be tight in the traditional space and more available in the non-traditional space but you pay a premium.