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The number for last week on Wednesday: $967.90 for a thousand board feet of lumber. That is both enormous in historical context—look at the lumber pricing data at Nasdaq and click on the MAX view to see how high the spikes are. And yet, it’s a steal compared to the intraday high of $1,733.50 on May 10, 2021.

It’s a time when professionals could understandably look for good news. The initial fall is helping. But there’s much to make you wary.

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