The National Retail Federation is expecting Thanksgiving weekend holiday shopping to be up this year but still lagging the Thursday to Monday period in 2019.
Two-thirds of consumers surveyed by NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics in early November said they expected to shop during that period which would bring shoppers to a total of 158.3 million people, up from 156.6 million last year but still below the 165.3 million in pre-pandemic 2019.
While Black Friday isn't the one-day event it once was, NRF said about two-thirds of shoppers that weekend (108 million) will be buying in stores or online that day this time.
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With the easing of the pandemic, 65% of shoppers are likely to do so in brick-and-mortar stores, up from 50% last year while 64% are likely to visit retailers on Black Friday, up from 51% last year.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said consumers are starting earlier than ever to be sure they can get what they want, when they want it, at a price they want to pay, noting this year some consumers started shopping for Christmas as early as Halloween.
Close to half of shoppers (46%) told NRF they started holiday buying earlier this year than they typically do with 28% claiming they completed purchasing everything on their lists by early November. The 28% is a substantial increase from the 18% in 2011.
In many ways it is not a hard lift to top last year's shopping metrics: The pandemic decidedly took its toll in 2020. During the week of Nov. 23, 2020, which included Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend, visits were down 25% for the overall retail sector.
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