Losses taken by lenders on previously defaulted CRE loans remain below rates seen in the Great Financial Crisis, according to an analysis by Real Capital Analytics. 

"It is possible we have not seen the worst of the losses as economic uncertainty tied to the pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine still looms," writes RCA's Alexis Maltin in the recent analysis in the firm's US Capital Trends report. "So far, however, the availability of debt and pent-up investor demand have helped buoy prices. This price growth has offered lenders some downside protection in the event of a default."

Lenders posted an average 19% loss in value from initial loan amounts across the five core CRE asset classes in 2021, compared with 36% at the peak of the last recession. Last year, loss rates on office loans fell the most from prior year levels, with the current loss rate for suburban assets sitting at 17%. That's three percentage points lower than CBD office assets.