With both inflation and interest rates rising, following the first Federal Reserve rate hike in three years, many people have no living memory of what can happen—for example, the double-digit rate mortgages that the 1980s saw.
For CRE professionals, the question to ask is will the coming increases mean a change in cap rates? According to JLL chief economist Ryan Severino, the answer is that the two have poor correlation.
"More than 40 years of empirical evidence supports this view," he writes. "The poor correlation exists at both the short end of the curve with the fed funds rate and at the long end of the curve with longer dated Treasury yields."
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