As inflation continues to pressure property markets and the broader economy, questions are swirling in industry circles about whether the cost to finance commercial real estate will tick up. 

US commercial mortgages originated last year showed an average 3.7% coupon rate for 7/10-year fixed rate products, according to data from Real Capital Analytics. As of March 2022, the rate had ticked up to 4.3%, a 60 basis point increase. And "increases in other rate instruments could foretell further commercial rate increases if traditional relationships hold moving forward," RCA's Jim Costello writes in a new analysis.

The 30-year fixed rate residential average from Freddie Mac was 5% in April, up from 3% in 2021. But Costello notes that the number fell much more than commercial rates during the height of the pandemic, and says it's not clear that commercial mortgage rates will increase to the same extent in the future.