How things change, and fast. Back in March, wood prices were high, hitting $1,464. By the end of April, things were a lot less clear given "so many extenuating factors going on," Mike Wisnefski, CEO of MaterialsXchange told GlobeSt.com at the time. Prices had dropped to $874 and then rose to break $1,000 again.

Now? The spot market closed at under $700 on May 27, according to data from Nasdaq and was at $679 at one point on Tuesday, according to Insider. What's going on is likely a combination of factors. One is the economics of markets.

"Historically speaking, lumber prices are elevated, trading at more than two times the 20-year median price," Josh Goodman, vice president of inventory and purchasing at Sherwood Lumber, tells GlobeSt.com. "We believe that they will trade above long-term averages for the balance of the year.  However, in the short term, lumber is down more than 50% from the most recent peak.  The market is trying to determine where the new price equilibrium compared to slowing demand and increased supply." There are too many unknowns—stability of the world economy, housing starts backlogs because of slow completions, and strong building permits. "The lumber market will become oversold and under inventoried eventually which points to a significant seasonal rally mid-year to help fill the large backlog that persists now and into the end of the year."

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.