Is the tide shifting for the white-hot industrial sector?  Depends on who you ask. Rents are soaring, vacancy is at historic lows (especially in desirable port markets) and cap rates have compressed dramatically. But according to one industry watcher, downside risk may be building, despite sunny baseline predictions. 

In an analysis published in Scotsman Guide, Moody's senior economist Thomas LaSalvia points to a few overarching trends to note: mounting recession risk, potential "overexuberance" among investors and logistics companies over long-term growth expectations, and changes in consumer spending, which is shifting to food services and drinking.

"Moving forward, it is likely that some of the excitement for this sector will subside, and that certain acquisition and development deals will garner an additional layer of scrutiny," LaSalvia says. "But this is not necessarily a bad thing for the overall health of the sector. Slightly softer demand, along with delays in speculative inventory growth due to supply chain issues and higher interest rates, may serve to prevent a bubble."