There are economists who insist that the US is not yet in a recession and economists who say it is, or at least will be soon. Business executives can’t delay their actions for the final ref’s call, so they’re making plans, many of which involve cutting expenses, including real estate.

JLL chief economist Ryan Severino in a note recently said, “the evidence we have thus far of a recession seems rather flimsy” with data that “remains ambiguous and unconvincing” for a number of reasons, like the influence of slower exports in Q1 and the expansion of gross domestic income (GDI), which should correlate to GDP. And given the margin of error in the calculations, “there is a roughly 50% chance the economy actually grew in the first half of the year.”

 

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